Veteran pollster John McLaughlin said his latest national survey of likely voters reveals strong public concern about national security, mixed perceptions shaped by media coverage, and early warning signs for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm elections.
During an appearance Thursday on The Michael Patrick Leahy Show, McLaughlin emphasized that his firm’s polling differs from many publicly released surveys because it models turnout based on prior elections.
“We’ve modeled it after the last national election,” he said, adding that some other polls “don’t have the right proportion of Trump voters.”
McLaughlin pointed to majority backing for the U.S. military actions aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Referencing his poll, McLaughlin said “52 percent to 40, the majority of Americans do” support such action. While acknowledging public reluctance toward conflict, he noted, “nobody likes war and his base is rock solid in this.”
He added that when voters are given more context, support increases. “When you tell them about Iran and was this warranted and justified, they agree, 59-32.” Furthermore, he said “60 percent of all Americans agree” that the U.S. should “finish the job,” compared to 30 percent who disagree.
However, McLaughlin argued that media coverage significantly shapes public perception.
Among those who directly watched President Donald Trump’s address to the nation on April 1, McLaughlin said, “Six out of ten said that he’s doing this to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons.”
In contrast, those relying on news reports were “split in support… because they think this is about regime change or taking the oil.”
“The legacy liberal media in the country is not focusing on the real reason why we’re doing this,” he said.
The poll also found broad concern about Iran’s intentions. “Sixty one to 20, the majority of Americans think” Iran would use nuclear weapons against the United States or its allies if it acquired them, McLaughlin said.
He criticized what he described as misinformation in public discourse, claiming some political figures and media outlets are “repeating Iranian state media propaganda.”
Despite relatively steady approval ratings for President Trump, McLaughlin warned of a disconnect between presidential support and congressional preferences.
“President Trump has a 49 percent job approval, 46 disapprove,” he said. Yet, “the Democrats are winning the midterm generic vote for Congress by four points.”
This gap, he argued, reflects frustration among voters over legislative inaction.
“If Donald Trump is for all these popular issues… and the Republicans can’t get it done, Trump voters will stay home in November,” he said, calling that scenario “a disaster.”
Economic concerns dominate voter priorities, according to the poll.
“Forty five percent were saying economic issues” are most important, McLaughlin noted, with “Twenty three percent… still saying cost of living inflation.”
He added that “Eighty percent of the voters are still saying they’ve been negatively impacted by inflation,” and argued that economic messaging remains inconsistent.
“If you pay attention to the mainstream media, you think the economy’s getting worse,” he said, though respondents presented with positive economic indicators were more optimistic.
On tax policy, specifically the Trump tax cuts, McLaughlin said support rises when voters are informed of specifics.
“It’s only 45 to 40 that they support it because we haven’t drawn a contrast with the Democrats,” he said, noting that increases when details are explained.
“Republicans really need to have a big economic battle about whose plans would make the economy more affordable, whether its Republican plans to cut taxes versus Democrats to raise taxes,” he stressed.
McLaughlin identified independent and Hispanic voters as critical groups for both parties.
“We have to focus on independent voters,” he said, noting Democrats currently lead among them “44 to 27” in his survey.
Among Hispanic voters, he reported Democrats hold a “55 to 39” advantage, a shift from recent Republican gains.
“We’re not hitting our marks with the key swing voter groups right now,” he said.
He also warned about turnout disparities in midterm elections, which typically see fewer voters than presidential cycles.
“If the anti-Trump voters are coming out heavier… it’ll be a disaster,” he said.
Looking ahead, McLaughlin described the battle for Senate control as highly competitive.
“We only got 53 out of 100 seats right now,” he said, with projections suggesting Republicans could fall to “51 or 52 seats… and that’s too close.”
He accused Democratic leaders of prioritizing political advantage over economic growth, claiming, “Chuck Schumer would rather the economy slow down… than to be able to have more economic growth.”
McLaughlin argued Republicans must focus on policies that boost wages and job growth. “The only way you get out of inflation is that you have better paying jobs,” he said.
On the potential political impact of an extended conflict with Iran, McLaughlin said public support depends on clarity of purpose.
“If Americans perceive that what this is about is about stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons… then the majority of Americans will tolerate higher gas prices for short term,” he said.
He added that Americans remain strongly supportive of the military, noting, “They fully back their military… Donald Trump has proven that we have the best military in the world and God bless them because they’re doing such a great job right now. And they’re willing to endure the sacrifices that they’re going through right now..”
Ultimately, McLaughlin suggested that both foreign policy outcomes and domestic economic conditions will shape voter behavior in November.
“Republicans in the Senate and the House need to get their act together,” he warned. “Otherwise they’ll pay a price in November, and we’ll all pay a price for that.”
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Kaitlin Housler is a reporter at The Tennessee Star and The Star News Network. Follow Kaitlin on X / Twitter.
