Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears is seeing a surge of momentum in her bid to become Virginia’s next governor, as a new Newsweek/A2 Insights poll shows her narrowing the gap with Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger within the margin of error.
The poll, conducted September 26–28, found Spanberger at 48 percent and Earle-Sears at 45 percent, with 6 percent undecided.
Mark Harris, general consultant for the Earle-Sears campaign, appeared on The John Fredericks Show Thursday to discuss the shift in the race.
Harris credited the surge behind Earle-Sears’ campaign to two key factors: a motivated Republican electorate and a growing backlash against Spanberger’s progressive positions on important issues.
“Republicans are really excited to come out and vote. They’re motivated, they’ve seen the direction of the country. They’re obviously excited about what President Trump is doing and what Governor Youngkin has done, and they know they need to keep Virginia moving in the right direction,” Harris said.
“I also think voters are coming to understand Abigail Spanberger’s very liberal positions and how extreme she is, and that we can’t afford that in Virginia,” he added.
Harris said Earle-Sears’ messaging appears to be resonating, particularly with suburban voters in Northern Virginia, a region that has traditionally leaned blue but played a pivotal role in Republican Glenn Youngkin’s 2021 victory.
He said internal data shows the campaign “overperforming” in the DC metro market and believes they can exceed their 40 percent target in that region—enough to offset Democratic advantages elsewhere in the state.
“We’re already seeing tremendous momentum. For us, we’re leaving no vote unturned and both President Trump and Abigail Spanberger have opened the door for us to do well with a lot of people who’ve never voted Republican before,” Harris said.
In addition to shifting poll numbers and a surge in early voting, Harris noted how the Earle-Sears campaign is also seeing a major influx of grassroots support.
According to Harris, the campaign added over 50,000 new small-dollar donors in September alone.
“In September alone, we had 50,000 new, low-dollar donors who are joining the campaign. So that’s the type of energy you have in these outsider races where you’re coming up from the outside and we’re really excited about where we’re at right now,” Harris said.
Despite being outspent by Spanberger’s campaign, Harris says the Earle-Sears team has secured enough funding to remain competitive but emphasized how the campaign is urging voters to bank their votes early on.
“We’re really excited about where we’re at right now, but people have to get out and vote, vote early…Go vote early and then we’ll quit texting, emailing, mailing you. You can get on with your life, but please go vote early,” Harris urged.
Early voting for Virginia’s November 4, 2025 general election runs through November 1.
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Kaitlin Housler is a reporter at The Virginia Star and The Star News Network. Follow Kaitlin on X / Twitter.
Photo “Winsome Earle-Sears” by Winsome Earle-Sears.
